In Patidar Bastion Mehsana, BJP Workers Admit Looming Loss

The fire of the Patidar reservation agitation that started in July, 2015 may have been doused, but the embers still glow. And therefore, the Mehsana district unit of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has fearful about the December 14 election – the second phase of polling in Gujarat.

Mehsana, which has seven assembly constituencies, was the launch pad of the stir that spiralled out of control for the government and ended up in the deaths of 14 men at the hands of the police. The district is witnessing a high pitched battle between the BJP and the Congress following the clarion call given by Hardik Patel, the leader of the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS), who is backing the Rahul Gandhi-led party to defeat the saffron brigade.

Interestingly, when the BJP had won just two MPs in the 1984 Lok Sabha elections, one of them, AK Patel, was from Mehsana parliamentary constituency. He held the seat till 1998, before Aatmaram Patel of the Congress took over and later, in 2004, Jivabhai Patel.

If you want to know the mood of Mehsana, its anger and displeasure, talk to Manabhai Shambhudas Patel, the grandfather of Mayur Patel, an MBA student who died after he was shot by the police during Patidar agitation.

“Modi is talking about Nizami, Pakistan and Ahmad Patel and trying to get him linked with Gujarati ‘asmita’ (pride) after being insulted by Mani Shankar Aiyar’s ‘neech’ (low-grade) remarks. But he is silent on who ordered the police to open fire on our youth. Mayur had gone out to buy milk and they shot him dead. The PM must answer,” the elderly man told Newsclick with visible anger on his face.

Apart from the anger against the police crackdown, the bastion of Patidar community also has a deep sense of deprivation, largely among the jobless youth who come from families with small landholdings.

“There is no education and unemployment is rampant in our community. And when we raise voice for our basic rights i.e. anamat (reservation in education and jobs), they (the government) kill us. This is development. This is the Gujarat Model,” said Narendra Patel, pledging to ensure defeat of the BJP. “We were the ones who strengthened the party with funding and working as its foot soldiers. Now, we will be the people who will ensure its humiliating defeat,” he claimed.

Sipping cup of tea at Mehsana circle along with others, Narendra Patel takes on Narendra Modi. “He is Narendra and I am also Narendra. I challenge his candidates to win even one of the seven seats in the district,” he dared.

A listener to this conversation suddenly intervened and said, “The BJP talks only falsehood. They talk of development. Is this called development where they are killing people?”

He then began showering praise on Hardik Patel. “The BJP left no stone unturned to defame him (Hardik), but they measurably failed in their tricks. He is a good boy and does not talk falsehood like the BJP. He is our leader and his popularity will be the same,” he added.

Bhavesh Patel claimed that the entire Patidar community has pledged to “oust the BJP not only from Mehsana, but from the entire state”. “They killed our people, lathicharged us and even sent us to jail. Despite this, we have emerged stronger,” he added.

It’s unusual for ardent BJP workers to express dissatisfaction on their party’s prospect in the next phase of the election. The anxiety is palpable when one talks to BJP workers in the district.

Falgun Patel, a long-time BJP functionary and corporator, accepts that the “contest is extremely tough” because of the anger in the Patel community.

With an aim to prove his points, he gives figures. “Out of the 2.57 lakh voters in Mehsana assembly constituency, around 52,000 are Patidars. In the best case scenario, we will not be able to get 18,000 votes of the community that used to be our strength,” he told Newsclick.

Asked about Plan B to compensate the possible loss, he said that his party is now attempting to win the confidence of OBC communities such as Chaudharys (17,000 approx), Prajapatis (26,000 approx) and Thakores (around 40,000).

“Though these communities traditionally vote for the Congress but we are expecting a tilt this time as there is discontent among them and the grand old party is emphasising on wooing the Patidars by promising them reservation. The OBCs understand they stand to lose if the quotas materialise,” he said.

It becomes more worrisome for the ruling party when you find BJP workers in Vadnagar, the hometown of Prime Minister Modi, accepting that that there is discontent and it is becoming difficult for their party, which has been ruling the state for over two decades and is aiming to return to power for a fifth consecutive term, to handle it.

Though he hoped the “Modi magic” to work again, he did not seem to be optimistic enough. “Modiji’s rallies are generally not witnessing turnouts as expected. And it is certainly not a good sign. We are working overtime to win back the support of the disgruntled Patidars, see what happens next,” he added.

Mehsana and Vadnagar fall in Mehsana district, but while Vadnagar is under the Unjha constituency, Mehsana city (known as Mahesana in the list of the state election office) is a separate constituency.

In addition to Mehsana and Unjha, the five other constituencies in the district are Kheralu, Visnagar and Becharaji, Kadi (reserved for SCs) and Vijapur. And all these seats have Patidar votes in significant numbers. Other than Kadi and Vijapur, the rest five seats have BJP legislators.

While the first polls were held on December 9, these constituencies will vote in the second phase on December 14. The results will be declared on December 18.