Elections 2019: How AAP Is Scouting for Alliances in 3 States

As the preparations for Lok Sabha elections are in full swing, the Aam Aadmi Party led by Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal appears to be vying for electoral alliances in Delhi, Punjab and Haryana to highlight its presence more prominently on the national landscape.

Kejriwal, whose government has received appreciation for bringing a positive change in education and health in the national capital, took everyone by surprise in a rally in old Delhi when he said that he was tired of convincing the Congress leadership for an alliance in the capital. It is particularly interesting given the fact Kejriwal had ousted the Congress from power in Delhi after 15 years of rule, by sweeping 67 out of 70 seats in Assembly elections in 2015. 

Both the parties enjoy a common vote bank comprising Dalits, minorities, slum dwellers and resettlement colonies and any split in this base would mean direct help to Bharatiya Janata Party, which is striving to polarise the voters by playing its nationalism card after the Balakot air strikes. 

The data of previous Lok Sabha elections also suggest that a coalition between the AAP and Congress can result in a formidable position for opposition parties in Delhi. In the last Lok Sabha elections, BJP got 46% votes followed by AAP, which received 33% votes, and Congress 15%. Political analysts maintain that the alliance between AAP and Congress will only bring more votes into their fold.

Talking to Newsclick, political analyst Abhay Dubey maintained that the alliance between AAP and Congress may bring favourable results. He said, "If we look at the data of the previous Lok Sabha elections, we find that the BJP candidates would have lost by a margin of more than 30,000 votes in every constituency except for West Delhi, in case of an alliance. This is the main reason why alliance talks between both the parties are on."  

The voices for alliance are gaining momentum with the support of senior Congress leaders like P C Chacko and Ajay Maken. Chacko says that the alliance is a necessity if the common objective is to defeat the BJP. "I have already made a recommendation to the party leadership for a fair alliance between the Congress and AAP which should do full justice to the prestige of the Congress party in Delhi. There is already a CWC resolution which has called for Congress striking alliances with like-minded parties to defeat the BJP," Chacko was quoted by the Economic Times as saying. 

However, the proposal for alliance is facing stiff resistance from former Delhi Chief Minister and Congress veteran Sheila Dikshit, who has been brought in as state president by Congress top brass to undo its electoral debacle. The resistance is emerging on two fronts. First, Dikshit was accused of corruption by Kejriwal in Commonwealth Games scam in 2010. Dikshit, bruised by these attacks, has a bitter relationship with Kejriwal now. 

Second, Congress leaders suspect that prospects for its revival will be severely dented by the alliance. The feeling is being more explicitly expressed by its local leaders like former MCD Councillor Ashwini Bagri. Talking to Newsclick, Bagri said that the alliance will be demoralising for Congress workers as they have organised all these years mainly to oppose AAP in the state. He said, "The party should go alone for the polls, as we jumped from 8% votes to 22% votes in MCD elections. Second, people will also vote on the performance of the BJP MPs who have not visited their constituency even once during their tenure."

Also read: Elections 2019: How Cong-NCP Allowed Momentum to Slip Away in Maharashtra

Amidst the speculations, leaders like former Delhi Pradesh Congress Committee Chief Subhash Chopra emphasised that BJP must be defeated in the upcoming elections, and he will go by the decision of the Congress leadership over the alliance. He said, "The party policy is that the BJP regime must be removed at any cost, which is there for us to follow."

If both parties agree on an alliance, each party may get three seats while one seat may be given to an independent candidate. While AAP is willing to field its candidates from East Delhi, Southeast Delhi and South Delhi, Congress may field its candidates from New Delhi, Chandani Chowk and North West Delhi. AAP, through the backdoor channels, has also made it clear to Congress that it will not compromise on candidates like Atishi Marlena, Dileep Pandey and Raghav Chaddha fielded from East Delhi, Northeast Delhi and South Delhi, respectively. Marlena is credited for her role in improving the condition of Delhi government schools, whereas Pandey and Chaddha have been known for their organisational roles. 

Is JJP and AAP alliance in offing? 

Replicating Delhi model in Haryana, AAP is in talks with the newly formed Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) formed by MP Dushyant Chautala after split in Indian National Lok Dal (INLD). Reports suggest that AAP state chief Naveen Jaihind also tried to bring Congress on board to form a major alliance to defeat BJP. But the initiative to bring parties together faced a major blow when the JJP leaders said that they will not be a part of any coalition which has Congress. It was understood that Congress and JJP share a common vote bank of Jats, and thus decided to stay away from each other. 

With JJP in alliance with AAP, both parties are expecting to expand their footfall. AAP enjoys significant support from urban areas like Gurgaon. However, the main concern of the party still remains defeating BJP. Jaihind argues that BJP is using hyper nationalism to divide society on communal lines. "A government that can even use the armed forces for politics, which can do anything to win elections, is very dangerous. When people are saved, society is saved, the country is saved. Only then can we do politics. Otherwise, what is the point?" The Indian Express quoted Jaihind as saying.

AAP to go solo in Punjab

AAP may not have a favourable condition in Punjab this time, unlike last Lok Sabha elections when it stunned the political observers by winning four seats. The party has been struggling with internal fissures after its popular leader Sukhpal Singh Khaira defected the party earlier this year. It is learnt that talks with newly formed party Shiromani Akali Dal (Taksali) by SAD (Badal) rebel MP Ranjit Singh Brahmpura are over after no consensus could be reached about Anandpur Sahib seat. While SAD (Taksali) maintained that its candidate Bir Devinder Singh, ex-Congress MLA and former deputy speaker of Vidhan Sabha, is the strongest choice for the constituency, AAP too remained adamant on candidature of Narinder Singh Shergill. Another point on contention remained Taksali group's support to BJP. After failed talks, AAP is likely to field its candidate on all 14 seats. Punjab will go to polls on May 19.

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