Will The West Blink on Ukraine or Create a New Cold War?

The crisis in Ukraine has now become a crisis in Crimea, with the Crimean Parliament declaring first, independence from Ukraine and now a referendum that has voted on uniting with Russia, with over 97% voting for merger and with more than 80% participating.

Russia has now made a proposal that could be a viable diplomatic solution- restore a version of the February 21st agreement, have a loose regional federation and a new constitution and create a neutral Ukraine on the lines of Finland. The status of Crimea is not clear in this, will it be a part of such a loose federation or will it be a part of Russia? While Kerry has said that these proposals can be discussed, the simultaneous imposition of sanctions on Russia by the Western powers, does not auger well for such discussions.

Image courtesy: wikimedia.org

More than 60% of Crimea consists of ethnic Russians. The Sevastopol base on the Black Sea, where the Russian Navy is stationed under the 1991 and 1997 Agreements, is in Crimea. If Crimea had remained a part of Ukraine, not only would the Russian speakers have lost their rights, but Russia would have lost its access to the Mediterranean. Sevastopol is the only all weather port in the Black Sea that allows the Russian Navy to operate in the Mediterranean.

With Crimea declaring that they do not recognise the coup in Kiev and voting for independence, the Western attack on Russia has mounted. The US, the EU and their East European partners are talking about Russia's violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and its territorial integrity, forgetting their own role in Kosovo and numerous other military interventions they have made, or are still making, all over the world. One can argue that two wrongs do not make a right and even if the Western powers have behaved illegally on a number of occasions, that does not make Russia's acts in Crimea right.

The question is how we view the events in Crimea? Is it something that happened autonomously of the preceding events in Kiev? Are the events in Ukraine to be viewed in isolation from the larger NATO-Russian engagement?

First the events in Kiev. An agreement was brokered by EU and Russia among both sides – Yanukovych and the opposition; it was duly signed on 21st February by not only the warring Ukrainian parties led by Yanukovych, Yatsenyuk, Klitschko and Tyahnibok, but also the representatives of Germany, France and Poland from the NATO/EU side and the Russian Federation. Under this agreement, there was to be a Government of National Unity that would be formed in 10 days, the President would give up much of his executive powers and the election would be brought forward. This was the political part. The other part was that there would be a general amnesty. Both sides would withdraw all blockades and illegal arms would be handed over to the Interior Ministry. While Yanukovych was willing to abide by the agreement, the opposition with the support of the neo-fascist Svoboda and Pravyi Sektor did not agree, even though Tyahnibok of Svoboda was a signatory to the accord. The result was that after withdrawing his security forces, Yanukovych and his family had to flee for their lives, and his party MP's were beaten up, landing at least one in the ICU with a fractured skull. Not surprisingly, under the guns of the fascist militias, the Party of the Regions' MP's (Yanukovych's party), also joined the opposition in “removing” Yanukovych from Presidentship.

The catch here is that the removal of the President under the Ukrainian constitution is not a simple vote in the Parliament. The impeachment provisions are clearly laid out and none of it was followed.

Despite the violation of the February 21st Agreement and the use of street violence by fascist militias, the Western powers pretended that this was not a coup but a “revolution” and therefore carried its own justification. The “will of the people” prevailed over a legally elected President. The Euromaidan protests, fanned by the West (it was even addressed by western leaders) carry their own legitimacy – as long as the western governments and its media anoint it a “revolution”.

The issue here is not whether Yanukovych was unpopular and his regime corrupt. It is simply about how one legally gets rid of a corrupt and unpopular regime. The February 21st Agreement did just that – Yanukovych was giving up his powers and a quick election would have installed a legal government with the support of the people. That the opposition reneged on the agreement shows that in their understanding they would not win any elections, preferring to use street power and fascist forces instead.

Ukraine has – like most countries – deep ethnic and language divisions. In Western Ukraine, the Svoboda, and the even more right-wing Pravyi Sektor, claim to be “ethnic” Ukrainian Nationalists, as did Stepan Bandera and his OUN while allying with Nazi Germany during the Second World War. The OUN and Bandera were instrumental in the ethnic cleansing of Jews and Poles in Western Ukraine and conducted “armed resistance” against the Soviet Union in Ukraine after the fall of Nazi Germany.

East and South Ukraine regard Bandera and his descendants as fascists and Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany as liberation.

All this does not mean that the two- Western and Eastern Ukraine- cannot stay in one state as they did till now. However it does mean that it is not possible to rule Ukraine on the basis of Ukrainian ethnic purity and disenfranchising others, as the fascist forces want. The consent of both halves of Ukraine are required to run the country, not just the streets in Western Ukraine.

It is this consent that was withdrawn by Crimea from the Kiev dispensation. With Svoboda and Pravyi Sektor playing a major role in the Kiev “administration”, Crimea, as well as large parts of East and South Ukraine do not accept Kiev's authority. They know the aim of these fascist forces is to disenfranchise all minorities. The fascists- Svoboda and Pravyi Sektor- hold power in the defence and security parts of the Kiev “administration”; with the collapse of the Ukrainian security forces, they are now arming their cadre to take over the role of security forces. Already, other regional languages have been banned and Russian language broadcasts and TV stopped.

While the Western powers are aware of the antecedents of the parties with whom they are now in bed, bringing Ukraine over to NATO or its break-up, is worth the price of cosying up to the neo-fascists.

The problem for Russia is simple. They cannot have a NATO fleet in the Black Sea while losing their Sevastopol base which is what the entry of Ukraine in NATO would mean. Forget the Reagan-Gorbachov understanding by which the US had agreed that NATO would not expand beyond East Germany. Ukraine joining NATO is not NATO entering Eastern Europe, this it is has done much earlier. Now it is bringing NATO to its doorstep.

For Russia, the options are now limited. They have to keep Crimea, either nominally independent and under a loose pact, or as a part of Russia. With a Western backed-coup in Kiev, they have executed their version of a coup in Crimea with the support of the people. Legally, it may have problems, but certainly much less than the Kiev coup. The West having thrown away the rulebook in Ukraine, can now hardly hold Russia to play by the same.

The West has very little leverage over Russia. Russia is militarily still a super power, economically not dependent on the West and can geo-strategically still play the same role it did earlier as the Soviet Union – court the Global South while trying to build an alliance with China and Iran. The EU is dependent on Russian gas supplies and a long-term hostility with Russia will affect its economy. The threatened sanctions mean very little, and if it does, will affect both sides. East and South Ukraine do not like the parties controlling Kiev but have not made the moves that Crimea has. There are protests in different cities, but not enough for creating an independent East Ukraine. Instead, they are asking for larger regional autonomy which Russia has also been pushing. If a free and fair election takes place, they are unlikely to support the Kiev Putschist parties. The joker in the pack is if the security establishment in Ukraine is taken over by fascists forces, is there any likelihood of a free and fair election in Ukraine? Will then Russia stand-by and see the Russian speaking community in the East and South lose their rights and become second class citizens?

Russia has drawn a clear line – Crimea is non negotiable. It is going to be within Russian influence; no sabre rattling from the NATO powers or sanctions will change that. How far will it go in other parts of Ukraine?

Clearly, Putin will be under pressure to intervene if large scale attacks take place on the ethnic Russian population or Russian speakers. Otherwise, it might be better for him to play a waiting game and let the Western powers try and keep Ukraine together. This means bankrolling the bankrupt Ukrainian economy and trying to bridge the fissures that the coup in Kiev has created, not an easy task considering the kind of forces that have seized power in Kiev. Having egged on Ukraine, if the West does not pick up the pieces, the current coup will backfire badly on its “proteges”.

The February 21st Agreement was a possible way of getting rid of Yanukovych and bringing in pro NATO forces through an election. Throwing it away and handing guns and security apparatus to the fascists is a big gamble that the West has undertaken.

The West has chosen a policy of expanding NATO and the EU up to Russia's borders. This may yet have a blow-back far beyond Ukraine's borders. Fascists or “ethnic nationalists” as they call themselves, can tear Europe apart. Backing fundamentalist militias in Syria or fascists in Europe may give the West a temporary strategic advantage but the cost borne by the people can be enormous, as we have seen in Afghanistan, Libya and Syria.

(Moon of Alabama has provided the best coverage of the events in Ukraine and Crimea. This piece has drawn heavily from this site)

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are the author's personal views, and do not necessarily represent the views of Newsclick.