Tripura: Blunders of BJP Blow Its Chances

Prime Minister Modi and BJP President Amit Shah seem to have made a serious miscalculation about Tripura. With only about 26 lakh voters and a ruling Left coalition that has been in power for twenty five years, they probably thought that it would be a cakewalk. People would have got tired of the Left, and money could win any election, they must have thought. In any case, it was important for them to defeat the communists known to be the strongest opponents of the RSS-BJP type of politics.

So they threw all their weight into an otherwise small election with Shah practically camping in Agartala, presumably micro-managing the strategy, a parade of central ministers flying in and out and PM Modi himself visiting the state several times, typically claiming in a rally that he had come running all the way from Delhi, drawn by the love of Tripura’s people.

But on the ground, BJP is clearly running second to the Left Front, despite all the media hype. This is mainly because of the Left Front’s remarkable record of governance in the state. But the BJP’s deeply flawed and opportunistic election strategy is also responsible. A series of blunders has handicapped the BJP campaign and corroded its credibility so deeply that its campaign lies in tatters a few days before polling.

#1 Embracing Turncoats: Starting with a very limited base (and no history of work), the BJP decided to welcome discredited defectors from the Congress/TMC, and some tribal outfits. This may have been a compulsion, but also a blunder. Six of the Congress MLAs that first shifted to TMC and then joined the BJP in the run up to the election were Congress strongmen who were leaders of the Congress goon squads in their youth. Some who joined the BJP were with the TNV backed TUJS in past years. Some others were part of various tribal groupings that keep appearing and disappearing in Tripura. So much so that an ex-Congressman from Assam who joined the BJP recently and became a minister in Assam was given charge of the campaign in Tripura! It may have seemed like a good idea for the BJP because they had nobody in the state, but the baggage these turncoats carried with them has severely damaged the party’s credibility.

#2 Alliance with IPFT: This was another desperate ploy by the BJP to widen its base, especially among tribal communities. The IPFT has a well-documented past of fomenting violence in order to propagate its demand for a separate Twipraland, comprising the present Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council area. It has had links with separatists, including those operating from Bangladesh. In the past it has aligned with the Congress. It also has openly raised anti-Bengali slogans and provoked violence. It has also targeted tribals opposed to its separatism and violence. Aligning with this organization, the BJP has successfully alienated large sections of both tribals and Bengalis, and also created a fear of return to the violent years that are now a decade past.

#3 Reservations for Nath community: Perhaps worried that its support might slip among the Bengali population due to the IPFT alliance, the BJP invited UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath to campaign in Tripura. He is a well-known anti-minority, pro-Hindutva personality. But he unveiled another of BJP’s mischievous gambits while campaigning in the state. He reportedly indicated that the Nath community among Bengalis will be given reservations because they are OBCs. Since Tripura is home to 31% Scheduled Tribes and 17.6% Scheduled Castes, adding up to 48.6%, and total reservations can’t go beyond 50% as per a Supreme Court directive, this promise is fraudulent. But the, this is the nature of electoral opportunism. You start pleasing one community, then you have to please another, then another, and before you can bat an eyelid you are neck deep in a firestorm of conflicting communities. The Congress has been there and done that. Now, its BJP’s turn.

#4 Reliance on Lies: The whole BJP campaign has been built on lies and deception. They have lied about the central govt.’s ‘achievements’ and bandied about a variety of lies about the Left Front govt.’s record in Tripura. Their false claims range from salaries of Tripura govt. employees being what they were 25 years ago (as recently as June 2017 employees got a raise of 19.68%, one of the highest in the country), health services being decrepit (Tripura has some of the best health indicators) and state being sunk in poverty (Tripura has seen one of the biggest reductions in BPL numbers), etc. On the other hand, BJP has concealed the fact that it has miserably failed to generate employment, boost farmers’ incomes, etc. This campaign of lies has not gone down well among the people in Tripura. It may be music to the ears of those who are already converted, but to thousands of families who have benefitted from the LF policies all this bombast is sound and fury signifying nothing. It doesn’t help win votes.

#5 Wild promises: The final big blunder committed by the BJP in Tripura is that it has tried to bribe the voters by making all kinds of wild promises like giving a free smartphone to youth, free education to girls, free health coverage to all BPL families, one “employment opportunity” to every family etc. The superficial nature of these promises – why “employment opportunity” and why not job – and the open attempt to give handouts is being seen by many in Tripura as insulting and typical of high fliers from Delhi. Even in making wild promises, the BJP has failed to invoke a sense of seriousness or validity among the voters. This is the fate of those who think that election campaigns can win people, not actual work.

The saffron party has thus shot itself in the foot in Tripura. There will be no surprises when votes are counted on 3 March. The BJP-IPFT alliance is going to bite the dust.