Nagaland is Heading Towards Uncertainty

On January 30 the Core Committee of Naga Tribal Hohos and Civil Organisations (CCNTHCO) declared a state-wide total shutdown on February 1. The shutdown would not be applicable to the movement of the army, paramilitaries, police, district administration, media persons, and emergency services. However, educational institutions would be shut. This declaration came in response to the decision of the Election Commission of India to go ahead with the assembly elections. On January 29 the CCNTHCO through a joint declaration with 11 political parties, including a representative of the BJP, urged the Election Commission to defer the Assembly Elections. They had also threatened a state-wide shutdown if the demand was not met.

By January 30, the BJP member who had signed the joint declaration, the state BJP vice-president, Kheto Sema, had been suspended. A press release from the state BJP confirmed this as well, that the NPF and the BJP had met to discuss seat sharing. Minister of State for Home, Kiren Rijiju has in the course of the on-going calls for deferring the elections stated that the electoral process is a constitutional compulsion, and it will have no bearing on the progress of the talks. The Nagaland BJP president, Visasolie Lhoungu, on the other hand, stated that the state BJP would follow the directives of the party high command.

These developments have not gone down well with the CCNTHCO as well as the other signatories to the joint declaration. The CCNTHCO demanded that the state BJP clarify its position in the wake of Kheto Sema’s suspension. They accused the BJP of playing an ‘insidious game’ and questioned whether the state BJP members owed their allegiance to the Naga people or to their party high command. The Working Committee of Naga National Political Groups (NNPG WC) declared that all those who file their nomination papers would be branded as ‘anti-Naga’ and as ‘traitors’. The NNPG WC also lamented the decision of the Election Commission of India to hold the elections in complete disregard for the sentiments of the Naga people.

Meanwhile, the National People’s Party (NPP) through a press statement stated that it was committed to the agreement signed and requested that the CCNTHCO clarify the position of the BJP before February 2. If there is no clarity on the BJP’s position before the mentioned date, the NPP would go ahead with the election process. The state unit of the INC, on the other hand, accused the BJP and NPF of playing a dual game by claiming to respect the wishes of the people on one hand and prepare for elections at the same time.

The uncertainty at this point for Nagaland and Nagas, in general, will be potentially volatile. Whether the ‘cautionary notice’ from the NNPG WC will translate into practice and its implications are yet to be seen. The shutdown is as unlikely to be called off as the ECI’s notification to conduct the elections. Hence, the boycott call will depend entirely on the good faith of the signatories to the joint declaration. Since the BJP high command is determined to go to the polls, how many signatories adhere to the joint declaration is up for speculation. At present, the NPF and BJP seem most likely to break with the joint declaration. The NPP also appears to be rearing to file its nomination papers. Under these circumstances, winning the election should not be the primary concern of the Union Government, particularly with the fate of the talks hanging in the backdrop.