Elections 2019: In Phase 4, UP’s Heartland Switches Sides

As Uttar Pradesh’s general election thriller entered the heartland of the state, the opposition Gathbandhan (Alliance) appears to be extending its lead, inflicting a decisive defeat on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the fourth phase too. Projections from 2017 Assembly elections show that the Gathbandhan of Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) is set to wrest back eight of the seats, while BJP will have to be content with five.

These projections from the 2017 Assembly elections – done by Newsclick’s Analytics Team – involve mapping the 2017 results on to parliamentary constituencies, add up the alliance votes in each constituency and factor in an additional 2.5% swing away from BJP. This method takes care of the new alliance as well as the discontent among people with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath’s policies.

Of the 13 Lok Sabha seats that went to polls today, 12 were held by BJP in the landslide of 2014 general elections. In the 2017 Assembly elections, all 13 would have been won by BJP if Assembly results are mapped on to parliamentary constituencies.

Phase 4 polling was held in Shahjahanpur, Kheri, Hardoi, Misrikh, Unnao, Farrukhabad, Etawah, Kannauj, Kanpur, Akbarpur, Jalaun, Jhansi and Hamirpur constituencies that stretch from the terai bordering Nepal in the north to the arid Bundelkhand region bordering Madhya Pradesh in the south. Kanpur is the sole major city and industrial centre in this belt. Etawah, Kannauj region is a stronghold of the SP and Dimple Yadav, wife of SP leader Akhilesh Yadav, had won the Kannuaj seat in 2014.

The coming together of SP and BSP, creating a formidable social alliance of the yadav (Other Backward Classes) and dalits (mainly jatavs), appears to be invincible in this belt. Had the Congress not contested separately, and joined the alliance, the BJP would have probably lost even more seats, the projections indicate.

Steady Decline of BJP Across Phases

Adding up similar projections for the earlier three phases of polling in UP, out of the 39 seats where polling has been completed, the Gathbandhan is projected to be winning 27 seats while the BJP wins only 12.

In 2014, BJP had won 35 of these 39 seats. So, it is projected as suffering a heavy loss of 23 seats already, with another three phases involving 41 seats still to come. Indications are that as the polling juggernaut moves eastwards, BJP’s losses may well intensify because both SP and BSP have strong presence in Awadh and peripheral regions.

BJP’s likely decimation in UP will strongly affect the saffron party’s ambitions of returning to power at the Centre. It had won 73 seats out of 80 in 2014, including two seats by its ally Apna Dal, and attained an impressive vote share of over 41%.

Two factors are creating this down swing for BJP: arithmetic and discontent. The two major parties, SP and BSP, are fighting the election together after a 25-year long hiatus. They are joined by a West UP-based party, RLD. But this arithmetic is finding traction in UP because of the mass discontent among people mainly due to farmers’ distress (which includes the stray cattle menace), raging joblessness and toxic communal politics of the BJP which rules in the state as well.

There is no reason why this discontent should not express itself in the remaining three phases, eastwards – thus likely sealing the fate of the ruling party.