Elections 2019: In UP, Gathbandhan Set to Sweep First Phase

Using data tools developed by Newsclick, Election Commission data on 2017 Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh shows that simple adding up of votes polled by the three opposition parties will upend the incumbent BJP members of Parliament in five of the eight seats in Western UP that are going to polls on April 11. The Bharatiya Janata Party had won all eight seats in 2014.

The Gathbandhan (GB) or alliance of Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) appears to be outweighing the BJP decisively in this belt, and may well set the tone for the rest of the state which accounts for 80 seats in the Lok Sabha.

Besides representing different social classes, the GB is being invigorated by a groundswell of discontent with the Modi government at the Centre and the Yogi Adityanath government in the state. Soaring unemployment, crashing farm prices, accumulated dues of sugarcane farmers, anger among Dalit communities and the divisive politics of BJP have contributed to this growing alienation of people in this prosperous agrarian belt of UP.

Another irresistible evidence comes from the May 2018 bypoll for the Kairana Lok Sabha seat where the RLD candidate roundly defeated the BJP’s candidate. The Gathbandhan was being tested out then and RLD was backed by SP and BSP. The seat had been won handsomely by BJP in 2014.

Not Just Math But Chemistry Too

Many political commentators and field reporters are of the view that it is not just the math but even the chemistry that is working against BJP. In other words, the brewing discontent will see a shift of many previous BJP voters towards the GB adding to an already invincible position of the latter.

Assuming a very reasonable swing of 2.5% away from BJP towards the GB, the tally of the ruling party gets reduced to just two seats in the region. These two seats are the predominantly urban seats of Ghaziabad and Noida (Gautam Budhha Nagar), where Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s appeal still survives though much tarnished. In fact, many local residents, especially in the rural areas of these two seats, are asserting that BJP will lose there too. The issue of land acquisition for Jewar airport and other projects, as also presence of a large number of disaffected workers in these industrial townships are being pointed out as reasons for the dip in BJP’s popularity in Ghaziabad and GB Nagar.

Recent rallies in the region by the two camps also indicate the dwindling fortune of BJP, despite the presence of PM Modi. His rallies were smaller and much less enthusiastic than those in 2014. On the opposing side, the much-awaited joint rallies of BSP’s Mayawati, SP’s Akhilesh Yadav and RLD’s Ajit Singh have drawn record crowds.

[Data processing by Peeyush Sharma and maps by Glenissa Pereira]