Mizoram Exit Polls: BJP a Non-Entity and a Hung Assembly Likely

The exit polls for Mizoram’s Assembly election have been announced. What appears to be a trend is that the Mizo National Front (MNF) is likely to emerge as the single largest party, followed by the Congress and the Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM). However, it is unlikely that party will cross the halfway mark in the 40-member Assembly. Thus, it may be safe to presume that ZPM will play the role of ‘king-maker’. However, considering the differences among the three parties, one can only wonder if realpolitik will take precedence. If the exit polls are accurate, this will be the first time Mizoram will witnesses a hung Assembly since attaining statehood.

What the Polls say

As reported by New Delhi Television (NDTV), the poll conducted by Republic-C-Voter shows that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will play to tradition and fail to make a dent in Mizoram. The Congress is projected to win between 14 to 18 seats, and the MNF 16 to 20 seats. Between three to 10 seats are projected to be won by ‘others’, which would presumably include ZPM. The Times Now -CNX poll also shows the BJP not winning a single seat. The Congress is projected to win 16 seats and the MNF, 18. The remaining six seats are projected to go to ‘others’.

The India Today-Axis My India poll, apart from displaying the likely seat share, also projects the vote share. The MNF is projected to win between 16 to 22 seats with a 34% vote share. The Congress and ZPM have been projected to win eight to 12 seats with a 29% and 31% vote share, respectively. ‘Others’ are likely to win one to four seats with a 6% vote share.

Also Read | How Has Mizoram Voted Since Statehood?

Nationalist Politics

The ZPM is the result of a merger between the Mizoram People’s Conference (MPC) and the Zoram Nationalist Party (ZNP) along with the Zoram Exodus Movement (ZEM). Like the MNF and unlike the Congress, the underlying ideology of the party is Mizo nationalism. However, unlike the MNF, the ZPM’s constituent MPC’s founder’s vision did not spring from a struggle for sovereignty. The party was started by Brigadier Thenphunga Sailo after he retired from service in the Indian Army. Sailo’s first involvement began with his opposition to the Army’s excesses during the MNF-led insurgency. His motives at the time were suspect since his son Lalsangliana Sailo had slipped away to join the MNF and rose in their ranks. He had served as Chief Minister of Mizoram twice in 1978 and after a spell of President’s rule in 1979. After the 1998 elections, he served as a minister in the MNF-led government.

The MNF’s moorings lie in its history as the underground political face of the Mizo nationalist cause led by Laldenga. Following the Mizo Accord, running the government was practically handed over to the MNF as a part of the peace deal. It was during this time that the MPC was unseated as the alternative to the Congress, and the MNF rose to institutional political prominence. However, in 1998, perhaps to recover lost ground, Sailo led a movement demanding the integration of all areas with prominent Zo or Mizo populations in Assam, Manipur, Tripura, Bangladesh and Myanmar. This proved to be quite a challenge for Laldenga, whose nationalist ideology was only confined to areas within India’s borders.

Also Read | Mizoram Assembly Elections 2018: A Political Backgrounder

Laldenga passed away in July 1990 and Sailo in March 2015. Sailo’s son, Lalhmangaiha Sailo, a retired Indian Revenue Service officer, took over the reigns of the MPC, whereas Laldenga was succeeded by Zoramthanga.

Changed Equations

 What the past displays is that both the MNF and the MPC had utilised Mizo nationalism to project themselves as an alternative to Congress. This is despite Congress’s Lalthanhawla having been involved with the MNF during its underground days. The 1998 election shows that the MPC and the MNF have the capacity to work together. However, since the MPC has now joined an alliance and is a part of the ZPM, one cannot be sure that a similar equation will emerge. The Congress, for its part, has made it clear that they are open to aligning with any like-minded party after the polls. However, here the question remains as to whether a Karnataka-style agreement can be reached.