For JD(S), Karnataka Polls is a Battle of Existence

For Janata Dal (Secular) - JD(S), the upcoming May 12 Karnataka assembly elections have become a battle for existence, as it risks losing its relevance in the state, if either Congress or BJP come to power with a clear majority. By projecting itself as an alternative to the ruling Congress and BJP in the three-pronged fight, JD(S) is reaching out to voters, aiming to retain the ‘king maker’ position it earlier had after 2004 elections. JD(S) was the key player in forming coalition governments, first with the Congress and later shifting its support to the BJP.

Under the leadership of H D Deve Gowda, JD(S) chief and former prime minister, his son H D Kumaraswamy – party’s chief ministerial candidate, is leading the party’s campaign. After the announcement of the list of its 126 candidates nearly two months before the election notification came out, its MLA nominees have begun their ground work in their respective constituencies, way before their principal contenders: Congress and BJP did. The party is set to release its second list of candidates.

Although JD(S) has set a target of winning 150 out of total 224 seats, in reality, JD(S) is in direct fight with Congress in only about 75 constituencies. For the remaining seats, the contest will be between the Congress and the BJP. With less than a month left for campaigning, Deve Gowda is scheduled to campaign in Mumbai-Karnataka and Hyderabad-Karnataka areas, where the party needs to improve its ground.

Alliance with the BSP

Forming an electoral alliance with BSP, JD(S) is strengthening its base among Dalit and backward communities in the state. As per the electoral agreement, BSP is set to contest in 20 constituencies out of total 224 seats, and has announced the list of its candidates. In the previous elections, while JD(S) was able to register around 20 percent vote share, their leaders claim that this alliance would further increase their vote bank in the upcoming elections.

While it is believed that JD(S) has considerable support from Vokkaligas and Lingayats – two dominant castes in the state, the alliance with the BSP will help the party to garner support from Dalits and backward castes in the state. JD(S) has also gained support from the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).

Muslims’ support

Muslim electorate in the state is about 13-16 per cent. Since reservation for Muslims in education was introduced by Deve Gowda in 1995 during his tenure as a chief minister, JD(S) has maintained strong hold with the community. However, two of its Muslim leaders and sitting MLAs – Zameer Ahmed Khan and Iqbal Ansari have joined the Congress party recently, signifying party’s losing rapport with the community. On the other side, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM and SDPI (Social Democratic Party of India) – parties which mainly bank on Muslim support, also have announced that they will contest in these elections separately. As it is considered that in nearly 100 constituencies, the community’s vote bank is a deciding factor, for both JD(S) and Congress, garnering Muslim support has become crucial.

Social Media Campaign

As social Media outreach for political parties is increasingly becoming a key factor in Indian elections since 2014, the social media team of JD(S) is way behind the Congress and the BJP. However, JD(S) claims to have improved its base in social media in the last five years, with access to 15,000 WhatsApp groups, hundreds of fan pages each with 70,000 to 1 lakh followers, 40 lakh e-mail addresses and 1.4 crore phone numbers, acquired from various sources.

Anti-incumbency factor

For more than three decades now, anti-incumbency has been a common phenomenon in Karnataka. As Kumaraswamy had been vocal against the Congress government at various occasions in the last five years, his campaign has been mainly centered on criticising Siddaramaiah’s government. If the anti-incumbency trend repeats, JD(S) will be benefitting along with the BJP.

Although the BJP and the Congress are done with several rounds of campaigning in the state, the campaigning strategy of JD(S) has also been strategically crafted, which is about concentrating on limited constituencies where it has the ground-level reach.