Kerala: ‘Not Anti-incumbency but Opposition Consolidation led to UDF Win in Thrikkakara’

Thiruvananthapuram:  The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) retained their bastion in the Thrikkakara Assembly bye-election through Uma Thomas, the wife of P T Thomas, the late legislator of the constituency. Thomas won the fierce contest with a margin of 25,015 votes, surpassing her late husband's lead by 10,686 votes.

The UDF candidate bagged 72,770 votes, whereas Dr Jo Joseph, the Left Front candidate, could bag 47,754 votes. Bharatiya Janata Party’s A N Radhakrishnan could secure only 12,957 votes.

The bypoll result won't make any difference as the Left Democratic front (LDF) has a clear majority of 99 over UDF's 41, but Thomas would now become the lone woman legislator for Congress in the Kerala Assembly.

In the bypoll necessitated by the demise of P T Thomas, UDF mainly focused on sentiments toward the late legislator and projected his wife Uma as his successor. Controversies and allegations were raked up by UDF against the government and the LDF candidate. They also led an intense campaign against the LDF government's ambitious project like K-rail.

The LDF's campaign focused on a pro-development agenda, detailing the welfare schemes and infrastructure development projects of the Pinarayi Vijayan government.

From the first round of counting, the UDF maintained a steady lead in their strongholds, leading to Uma Thomas winning with the highest ever margin in the constituency.

Since its formation in 2011, the Thrikkakara Assembly constituency has always been a traditional stronghold of Congress. In 2011, the constituency elected Benny Behanan of Congress with a lead of 22,406 votes. P T Thomas had been representing the constituency from 2016 until his death on December 22, 2021. In his first contest from the constituency in 2016, Thomas defeated Sebastian Paul, an Independent candidate supported by LDF, despite the anti-incumbency wave against the Congress-led government.

In 2011, Congress bagged 65,854 votes which is 55.88% of the total votes. The LDF secured 43,448 votes (36.87%). The share of BJP was 5,935 votes.

The 2016 elections saw the LDF’s return to power with a thumping victory across  the state, but Thrikkakkara stood with Congress. This time, UDF got 61,451 votes, which was 45.42% of the total votes polled. Though the vote share of UDF had gone down by 10%, LDF could not wrest the seat. It secured 49,455 votes (36.55%). But the vote share of BJP went up to 21,247 votes, with 15.7% of the total votes.

In the 2021 Assembly election, when LDF retained power by registering a historic win, Thrikkakkara once again stayed firmly with Congress. PT Thomas retained the constituency, even when many UDF strongholds were captured by the Left. Thomas got 58,839 votes, LDF got 45,510 votes, and BJP bagged 15,483 votes. The 2021 election also saw the emergence of a new party -- Twenty-20 party (T-20) -- corporate-funded party, which secured a decisive 13,897 votes.

When it comes to the 2022 bye-election, the T-20 stepped away from the election fray. As the T-20 founder has not been on good terms with the state government and  the LDF, there is a high possibility that their votes must have gone to UDF.

There has been a decline in BJP’s vote share as well. Radhakrishnan, the BJP candidate, got only 12,957 votes as compared to 15,483 in 2021. The BJP’s votes fell by 2,526. The LDF has, however, seen a slight improvement in vote share. Joseph’s candidature increased the Left’s vote share to 47,754 votes, from 45,510 in 2021n but only UDF’s vote share saw a steep rise.

Speaking to the media after the results were announced, CPI(M) State Secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan said the retreat of Twenty-20 from the poll fray and the decline in BJP’s vote share helped UDF attain the massive lead. He dismissed the Opposition’s allegations that the Left’s defeat in the bypoll was a mandate against the incumbent government.

“LDF has increased its vote share, but it is not enough considering the campaign efforts by LDF. Our party will look into it,” he said, adding that the “LDF government won a second term overcoming anti-incumbency factors and predictions, this bypoll cannot be considered a mandate against it”.