Kerala Bypolls: Will Ruling Left Front Be Able to Overturn UDF Bastions Ernakulam and Manjeswaram?

As the campaigns for by-elections in five Assembly constituencies across Kerala end on Saturday, October 19, the contesting parties are making their last attempt at canvassing the maximum number of voters. Though the policies of the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) government have become a matter of debate and discussions in all constituencies, the faulty Palarivattom flyover along with the pothole ridden roads under the Kochi Corporation is being highlighted in Ernakulam constituency.

Along with Ernakulam, four other constituencies- Vattiyoorkavu, Konni, Aroor, and Manjeswaram- are going to polls on October 21. The United Democratic Front (UDF) camp has fielded sitting deputy mayor of Kochi Corporation, TJ Vinod as their candidate. While, Communist Party of India [CPI(M)]-backed Manu Roy is the LDF candidate here. CG Rajagopal of BJP is also contesting from this seat.

Though the Palarivattom flyover is situated in the Thrikkakara constituency, the corruption case associated with it which involved high-ranked politicians and bureaucrats became a campaign topic in Ernakulam constituency. As the flyover has been shut for traffic, it has become very difficult for commuters with vehicles to travel through this area. The pathetic condition of roads under Kochi Corporation have aggravated the hardship of people. These issues may prove to be a headache for the UDF camp in Ernakulam constituency which has been a bastion of Congress. 

Meanwhile, Manu Roy, a young lawyer of Kerala High Court and son of veteran journalist KM Roy, has been trying to garner the votes of youth and students. Manu has been involved in actively taking up the issues of people and is a known face in the segment.

Also read: Kerala Bypolls: LDF Banks on its Performance in Aroor and Konni Constituencies

But the history of the constituency stands with UDF camp, which has 12 times from here. LDF has won the seat only twice, that too, in 1987 and 1998. In 1987, MK Sanu and in 1998, Sebastian Paul were elected to the Assembly. During 1998, in a by-election which was held after the sitting legislator George Eden was elected to Parliament, Sebastian Paul had been fielded as the Left candidate and bagged victory by a margin of 3,940 votes. This time, 21 years later, the by-election is necessitated after the sitting legislator Hibi Eden, son of George Eden, was elected to the Lok Sabha in the Parliament election 2019.

In 2016 Assembly election, Ernakulam elected Congress candidate, Hibi Eden, who won by a margin of 21,949 votes than the CPI(M) candidate. Parliament election 2019 had also repeated the same trend. In the Ernakulam Lok Sabha constituency where Ernakulam Assembly segment belongs, Hibi bagged victory with over 1.6 lakh votes. If Assembly-wise vote share during the Parliament election 2019 is considered, Congress candidate secured 31,178 votes more than the CPI(M) candidate P. Rajeev.

For the UDF camp, Ernakulam seat is a matter of pride since it is known as a Congress bastion, while the LDF camp is hoping to recapture the seat from UDF like in 1987 and 1998. 

Moving to Manjeswaram segment which houses various linguistic identities, the election battle is between both the fronts—LDF and UDF—along with BJP. Manjeswaram is one of the few constituencies in the state where BJP has a decisive role in election results.

Also read: Vattiyoorkavu, a Crucial Seat in Kerala Bypolls

All five seats except Manjeswaram became vacant because the sitting legislators were elected to Parliament in May 2019. However, Manjeswaram seat has been lying vacant since October 20, 2018 ,after the demise of sitting lawmaker PB Abdul Rasaq. However, the by-election had been delayed as the then BJP candidate K Surendran had filed a complaint in High Court. Recently, he had withdrawn the complaint.

From UDF camp, MC Kamaruddin of Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) is contesting. While for LDF, Shankar Rai of CPI(M), who is also a cultural activist, is leading the electoral battle. Ravisha Tantri Kuntar is the BJP candidate here.

The constituency is one of the most backward regions in the state and therefore, most candidates are focusing on developmental issues in this segment. However, both BJP and UDF have opened up their communal card too. Disclosing that CPI(M)’s candidate Rai had visited Sabarimala several times, both BJP and UDF are trying to use it as a ‘loophole’. Congress leader and leader of Opposition in the state Ramesh Chennithala even termed Rai as pseudo-Hindu.

“Has anyone given the right of the Hindu to the Opposition leader who calls the candidate a pseudo-Hindu? Shankar Rai, the LDF candidate, was not tied to the thread. He was born and raised on the soil. He’s with you for everything,” said Pinarayi Vijayan, state chief minister, in a public meeting on October 12.

Manjeswaram has a decisive share of Kannada and Tulu speaking voters. Though 60% of Tulu voters have traditionally been rallying behind BJP, this time, LDF camp expects that Rai’s candidature will help to change the equation.

A retired school headmaster, Rai, who speaks Tulu, Kannada along with Malayalam, is a known Yakshagana artist too.

“The biggest issue in Manjeswaram is that the people do not get to know what the government is doing for them. Mainly because the communications and orders are in Malayalam,” Rai has reportedly said.

“If I am elected, I will ensure that government orders and forms reach Manjeswaram and Kasargod in Kannada,” he added. 

But, the sympathy over the demise of Rasaq and fear among the minorities of BJP winning strengthens the chances of UDF candidate Kamaruddin. BJP’s hopes are also high, despite there being conflicts in the party. In the 2016 Assembly elections, K Surendran of BJP had managed to bag 35.74% of the total votes polled. The IUML candidate could secure 35.79% votes as well and the margin of victory was only 89. However, Surendran has moved to Konni to contest, which has sparked issues within the party as well.

So, the question remains whether the multilingual Rai can win the votes of linguistic minorities and reclaim the seat from UDF or UDF can maintain the seat in this term too.

Also read: Kerala Bypolls: Conflicts in Congress Intensify After Pala Result, Fronts Declare Candidates