J&K ULB Polls: Flawed Election, Farcical Victories

Amid the celebration of ‘victory’ in the Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) urban local body (ULB) polls by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a closer look at the percentage of vote shares narrates a different story. While the party has gained some ground in Kashmir – because of sparse voting and boycott by People’s Democratic Party and National Conference, the two key local parties – the BJP has lost miserably in Jammu and Ladakh. This is a significant red flag for the party ahead of the 2019 general elections.

As per the figures, the vote share of the saffron party has come down by a staggering 51% in the three assembly constituencies of Jammu city – Gandhi Nagar, Jammu (East) and Jammu (West). Commentators believe that while the BJP is cheering its presence in the Valley, the loss in districts of Jammu and Ladakh underline the fact that the party is losing its foothold.

While the BJP has managed to grab the Jammu Municipal Corporation (JMC) by securing 43 seats in the 75-member body against Congress, which has managed to grab 26 seats, it has also lost its ground in a few other districts of Jammu province, which were once considered to be its strongholds. The vote share in districts like Samba, Kathua Udhampur, Chenab valley region (Doda), Rajouri Kalakote and Reasi has ruptured the tall claims of the saffron party. What is pertinent to note is that Jammu city was considered to be the “citadel” of the party.

Commentators believe that the drastic fall in BJP’s vote share in the Jammu region is a warning bell for the party. It clearly shows that people on the ground are upset with the BJP. If we compare the vote share in the Assembly elections and that in the ULB polls, a clear picture emerges.

As per the data, in the 2014 Assembly elections, BJP had secured 1,48,081 votes in the three assembly constituencies of Jammu city as compared to 72,503 votes in the ULB – which amounts to a loss of nearly 51%.

Meanwhile, the BJP has won 212 of the 520 wards, followed by Independents (185), Congress (110) and Jammu and Kashmir National Panthers Party (13).

In Ladakh, BJP has faced a setback (the party had won the parliamentary seat in 2014 Lok Sabha elections) against Congress, which has emerged victorious by grabbing all the 13 wards in the Leh Municipal Committee, and five wards in Kargil against eight wards by Independents.

However, in Kashmir, the elation of saffron party at managing to win 100 seats in the ULB polls seems to be “meaningless”, considering the 4% voter turnout – the lowest since 1951. Notably, the boycott by the mainstream parties – PDP and NC – has also favoured the national parties.

As per the figures, out of 624 seats, in 40 municipal bodies across the Valley, polling was only held for 208 seats, while 416 seats were uncontested because of any one contestant in the fray or no contestant at all. As per the official data, 185 wards remained vacant in Kashmir, as no nomination was filed.

"BJP might cheer because they won few wards. But I want you to note that most of them were unopposed. BJP can make inroads in the Valley politics but it can never win our hearts," said a Valley resident, on the condition of anonymity. As per official data, 185 wards remained vacant in Kashmir as no nomination was filed.

Many commentators believe that the elections in Kashmir were a ‘farcical’ attempt by the BJP to gain some ground in the region. They also believe that the BJP has hauled up some vote share in the Valley because many wards remained uncontested, and fewer people participated in the electoral process. In many cases, candidates have won from the districts where fewer votes were cast, as there was no opposition. As per official data, 185 wards remained vacant in Kashmir, as no nomination was filed.

In Srinagar,  BJP had contested 72 wards, but managed to win in only four, while Congress won in 15.

It should be underlined that the turnout in Kashmir for ULB polls has been the lowest – 4.27% – since 1951, surpassing the 1989 turnout of 5.18%. In 1989, when militancy gained momentum in the Valley, the elections were contested for Baramulla and Anantnag parliamentary seats only. However, elections have not been held for Anantnag parliamentary seat which has been lying vacant since June 2016, making it the ‘longest delayed bypoll’ in the country since 1996, as per the Election Commission of India data.

(With data inputs from Pratheesh Prakash)