Dangerous Escalation as Turkey Downs a Russian Plane

The downing of a Russian Su-24 bomber by two Turkish F16 fighter jets yesterday, has brought to the brink Russia and Turkey's relations. As Turkey is a part of NATO, it has brought NATO out in support of Turkey, endorsing its claims that the Russian aircraft had crossed into Turkish airspace. While it does not appear that the first downing of a Russian plane in 50 years by a NATO country will escalate to a shooting war between NATO and Russia, this incident does make clear the dangers of uncoordinated air activities in the crowded Syrian skies. Turkey's refusal to cooperate with Syria and Russia, brings home the dangers of such a path.

This incident took place north of Latakia, and very close to Syria's north-western border with Turkey. One of the two pilots who parachuted out of the Su-24 was shot and killed by Syrian rebels on the ground, while the other has been rescued by Syrian government and Russian special forces.

First the facts. Turkey has claimed that the Su-24 had crossed into Turkish airspace, had been warned 10 times in the 5 minutes that allegedly was in Turkish airspace. They have released a radar trace showing the Su-24 incursion into Turkish airspace. The problem with the Turkish version is that in a communication to the 15 members of the United Nations Security Council and the Secretary General, Ban Ki Moon, they have claimed that the incursion was for only 17 seconds. So why was Turkey warning the Su-24 for 5 minutes as it claims, if the incursion was only of 17-seconds duration? Given this extremely short duration, it is difficult to believe that it could have been an aerial pursuit by Turkish F-16's of the Russian plane after it had strayed into Turkish airspace, and more like a deliberate ambush.

The Russians have angrily denied Turkish claims, and have in turn furnished their radar trace. It shows that the Su-24 was always in Syrian airspace and it was Turkey's F-16's that had entered the Syrian airspace in order to shoot down the Su-24. The Russian President Vladimir Putin called the Turkish act “a stab in the back by the accomplices of terrorists” and said that Russia will take steps to protect its aircraft and soldiers. Russia has already announced a tourist ban of Turkey.

Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO Secretary General, in his press briefing after the NATO Council met, claimed that the Turkish version is “consistent” with what NATO know from their sources, whatever that means, and that Turkey has a right to self-defence. In other words, NATO will have Turkey's back, irrespective of the facts.

It was also interesting that the Stoltenberg talked only of the need to fight ISIL in Syria and Iraq and carefully omitted any mention of Jabahat al-Nusra, the al Qaeda affiliate and the main rebel force operating in this area. All the western countries, as well as the western media, have been talking only about ISIL (IS or Daesh), and not about Jabahat al-Nusra. Jabaht al-Nusra leads the Jaish al Fatah front, and has within it, Ahrar al Sham (another sectarian Wahabi formation), and various other groups including the so-called Free Syrian Army supported by the west. This has been the major disconnect between the Russian position and the western one. In western view, Russia should only attack IS, and not al Qaeda, as they are in alliance with their proxies. Russia has refused to recognise this distinction.

Why did Turkey and its President Erdogan take this dangerous path of confrontation with Russia in Syria? Is it that he wants to punch far above his weight and militarily confront Russia in Syria? Or is it an attempt to scuttle the rapprochement between France, the US and Russia after the Paris attacks?

Turkey has territorial claims over northern Syria and has been supporting the Turkmen rebels in this area, who have ethnic links to the Turks. As Syrian government forces have moved into this area in the last few weeks, Turkey has repeatedly warned Russia to stay out, prompting some experts to comment that Turkey has now formally a toehold in Syria. For the Syrian government and Russia, to seal the northern frontier with Turkey is important, as this is the supply route for the Jabahat al Nusra as well as IS.

Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Gulf monarchies, have a very different understanding of Iraq and Syria. They believe that IS and al Qaeda are preferable to the resistance axis of Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran, a belief Israel also shares with them. In their internal practice, the Saudis, Qataris and the Gulf monarchies practice a perverted Wahabi version of Islam that prescribe death to apostates -- non-believers, Shias, Sufis, and others. It is under such Wahabi version of Islam that the Palestinian poet Ashraf Fayadh, has recently been sentenced to death in Saudi Arabia.

The US, and its NATO allies, as we now know, played along with this view. The internal memo of the US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) talked of facilitating the rise of a Salafist state spanning Iraq and Syria to isolate the Syrian regime. in an interview with Mehdi Hassan on Al Jazeera, Michael Flynn, the former director of DIA, confirmed that the US did not just overlook the rise of IS, but it was a wilful decision.

After the recent Paris attack, it appeared that the western powers have started to realise that IS is not a docile pet they can use against others, and not be bitten themselves. Grudgingly, they started to acknowledge the need to coordinate their air war against IS with the Russians. They have also started to change their obdurate position that Assad “regime” must immediately go. The recent Vienna meeting of the International Support Group for Syria did show some changes in the western positions.

Turkey has a completely different agenda in Syria and Iraq. It wants regime change in Syria, does not want a Kurdish autonomous region to emerge in northern Syria, and is willing to play along with IS and Jabahat al Nusra. While it has given lip service to attacks against IS, its fire has been concentrated, not on the IS, but on the Kurds. It is still a supplier of arms, money and weaponsto IS and Jabahat al Nusra; it allows free transit of fighters -- back and forth -- from southern Turkey to northern Syria.

Turkey may talk about the inviolability of its airspace. This has not prevented it from threatening the Kurds about crossing the Euphrates in Syria . It had earlier imposed a 5-kilometre no-fly zone for Syrian aircraft within Syria's northern border. It has repeatedly bombed and shelled the Kurds within Syria, without any permission from the legitimate government of Syria. As have the US, France and other countries.

Russia is now deploying high-end anti aircraft defences in northern Syria. It may now impose a ban on all Turkish aircraft from entering Syrian airspace.

Bringing down of the Su-24 could be a deliberate attempt by Turkey to sabotage any understanding emerging between Russia and the western powers in Syria. We can already see the closing of ranks in the NATO, with the US, France and NATO officials echoing the Turkish position. Turkey is an important NATO ally and it does appear – at least from the preliminary responses – that the west is willing to sacrifice Syria and Iraq to retain Turkey as a part of NATO.

The shooting down of the Russian jet on the Turkish Syrian border is a symptom of a much deeper disease. Will the western countries such as the US, France and the UK, continue with their alliance with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the Gulf monarchies and still talk about a war on global terror? Increasingly, the two are incompatible. That is what we need to address.

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