Bihar: Stakes High for Nitish Kumar and Congress in Second Phase

Patna: Despite heat wave-like conditions, voting is underway on Friday for five of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar in the second of the seven-phase polls. This phase is a high-stakes battle for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal-United, a major ally of ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance and the opposition Congress, a part of Mahagathbandhan in the state and the INDIA bloc at the national level.

Kumar's JD-U is fighting a tough battle to retain four of five seats in this phase. JD-U as a part of NDA had won the four seats of Purnea, Katihar, Bhagalpur and Banka in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Congress, too, is facing a challenge to retain the Kishanganj seat that it won in 2019.

This time again, JD-U is hopeful of replicating its last performance riding on ‘Modi factor’ (Prime Minister Narendra Modi). Kumar and other top leaders of NDA are repeatedly claiming during their campaign that JD-U will not only retain the four seats, but will also win Kishanganj this time.

However, contrary to this claim, the ground reality seems different. The incumbent JD-U MPs of Purnea, Katihar, Bhagalpur and Banka are facing anti-incumbency in their respective parliamentary constituencies, with local Hindi newspapers reporting that people are angry over their failure to fulfil the promises made last time.

Going by the dominant mood among people, Kumar seems to have lost credibility due to his ‘Paltu Ram’ (turncoat) image after repeatedly switching sides, He no longer enjoys social support on the ground that he used to four or five years ago.

There is no dearth of issues that are affecting thousands of people in these seats. The high rate of poverty, rampant unemployment, migration to earn livelihood, poor facilities of education and health care are common issues. All the candidates have promised ‘development’ during their campaign.

Take, for instance, Bhagalpur, where JD-U MP Ajay Mandal is seeking re-election. He has become very unpopular among the people for neglecting the problems of the constituency in the past five years. Besides, JD-U's ally, BJP, and its leaders and workers were reportedly not active during his election campaign.

Mandal, who belongs to backward Gangot community, is heavily banking on support from his caste, along with his party's traditional support base among Other Backward Classes (OBCs), Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs) and Dalits. He is also confident of getting support from BJP's core votes among the upper castes.

On ground, however, it appears a tough battle for Mandal, as Congress nominee Ajeet Sharma, who belongs to powerful landed Bhumihar upper caste. He is confident of getting support from Bhumihars, which are roughly 1.5 lakh, along with the traditional support base of Muslims-Yadavs of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and some sections of Dalits and EBCs.

Congress is contesting Bhagalpur after a long time. After the 1989 infamous Bhagalpur communal riots, the seat was either won by RJD or BJP, except once by CPI(M) in the 1999 polls. Going by this record, it is not easy for Congress, which last won this seat in the1984 elections with Bhagwat Jha Azad as its candidate.

In the backward and impoverished Seemanchal region, JD-U's incumbent MP from Katihar, Dularchand Gosawami, is facing a ‘do or die’ battle. Here again, the JD-U is missing the full support of its ally BJP because saffron party leaders and workers are not happy with Goswami. This is a key factor that is likely to badly damage the JD-U candidate’s poll prospects.

On the other side, Congress candidate Tarique Anwar, who lost the last polls by 57,000 votes, is more popular and has an image of a humble leader, who is easily accessible to the people. His  long association with Katihar has brightened his chances this time.

Anwar is also banking on Muslims, which are more than 40% the of total population of the constituency, and on the sizeable Yadav community, traditional voters of RJD.

He has has won the seat five times and is a former Union Minister and was once even projected as the likely Chief Minister of Bihar.

In Purnea, JD-U incumbent MP Santosh Kushwaha is hoping for a hat-trick this time. But he is not only facing anti-incumbency, but also the presence of former MP Pappu Yadav as an Independent candidate, has changed the scenario considerably.

Though Kushwaha won the seat first time in 2014, he is facing a tough battle due to Pappu Yadav, who won the seat thrice in the 1990s. Pappu Yadav, a criminal-turned-politician, locally known as bahubali (strongman) is popular among all castes and creed in Purnea, if reports in local Hindi dailies are anything to go by.

Congress is fighting to retain Kishanganj. This was the only seat won by Congress or the Opposition in Bihar in 2019. In this Muslim-dominated seat, the three main contestants are also Muslim.
 

The Muslims are nearly 68% of the total population of more than 17 lakh (as per the last census of 2011) in Kishanganj. But thier votes are likely to split among three.

The triangular contest in Kishanganj is among incumbent Congress MP Mohammad Jawed, who is part of opposition Mahagathbandhan and is seeking re-election, the ruling JD-U’s Muzahid Alam, a part of NDA, and All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) nominee Akhtarul Iman. On the ground, there is a direct fight between Congress and AIMIM. Sensing this, AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi camped in Kishanganj for few days to campaign for Iman, who unsuccessfully contested in in the 2019 polls. He came third with 2.95 lakh votes after JD-U that got 3.32 lakh votes, while Congress got 3.67 lakh votes. This data shows that Muslim votes get divided among Muslim candidates.

During campaign, Owaisi appealed to voters to take money from Congress and use it to construct toilets but vote for AIMIM on Friday (April 26), the day of offering prayers to defeat Satan (shaitan or evil forces).

As per the reports from the ground, the strong presence of AIMIM in Kishanganj is being seen as a blessing in disguise for Congress, which is  likely to gain more support from Hindus to challenge and counter the ‘Owaisi brand’ of politics.

Overall, caste arithmetic will play a key role in the second phase of elections in Bihar’s flood-prone and fertile belt.

RJD chief Lalu Prasad has appealed to people to vote to “save and protect the Constitution.” He has warned that the Constitution would be changed if Modi-led NDA returns to power at the Centre.

NDA star campaigner Modi addressed several election meetings for the 4 seats in the second phase, but his so-called ‘Modi magic’ is by and large missing.