Elections 2019: Why BJP's Safest Seat, Gorakhpur, is Looking Unsafe

New Delhi: With less than a week left for the first phase of Lok Sabha elections, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is yet to announce its candidate for Gorakhpur – the home turf of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, who has been an MP from there since 1998.

If sources are to believed, it may be difficult for BJP to save the Gorakhpur seat if Adityanath does not fight from the constituency, which goes to polls next month.

What is adding to the uncertainty in Gorakhpur is also the fact that there is speculation but no confirmation yet if Nishad Party MP, Praveen Kumar Nishad, who fought on a Samajwadi Party ticket and recently switched over to BJP, will be fielded from Gorakhpur. It may be recalled that Nishad Party chief, Sanjay Nishad, Praveen’s father, has forged an alliance with BJP for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Eastern Uttar Pradesh.

Arithmetic of Gorakhpur

Gorakhpur has been counted as one of BJP's safest seats owing to Yogi Adityanath's complete hold on it for 20 years. In1989, Mahant Avaidyanath was elected from Gorakhpur and since 1998, his protégé, Adityanath, has represented it. However, in the 2018 bypolls, Praveen Nishad, as an SP candidate, defeated BJP's Upendra Dutt Shukla by over 21,000 votes. So, the question now is: will BJP field him on its symbol? If yes, then what about the upper caste votes that had polarised in BJP’s favour in 2018?

To understand the arithmetic, Newsclick spoke to Gorakhpur-based journalist, Manoj Singh, who said, "There are some names in the air from Gorakhpur. Upendra Dutt Shukla, who contested last time against Praveen Nishad and lost with a thin margin, BJP district general secretary, Dharmendra Singh, and Yogi Kamalnath, a priest in the Gorakhnath Math, Amrendra Nishad, son of former minister, Jamuna Prasad Nishad. Amrendra recently resigned from SP to join BJP, and lastly Praveen Nishad. There is also speculation that Yogi Adityanath may himself contest. However, for BJP it is very difficult to choose a candidate."

Will Yogi Himself Fight to Save Gorakhpur Seat

Explaining how BJP was in a fix, Singh said “Amrendra Nishad ditched SP and joined BJP just to contest from Gorakhpur, but because Praveeen Nishad and his father Sanjay, joined with their "full" party and formed an alliance without any terms and conditions, they deserve more, but that would make Amrendra unhappy.”

In this condition, there may be no option for BJP but to make Yogi Adityanath contest.

Since SP has already fielded Ram Bhuwal Nishad, the fight will be Nishad vs Nishad, he said, adding that if BJP projected Praveen or Amrendra, the fight ould be “very tough” as a majority of the Nishad community was said to be angry with Nishad Party for joining hands with BJP.

"If BJP does not project Shukla this time, they will lose Brahmin, Rajput and Kayastha votes, all of whom will be hesitant to vote for a Nishad candidate. There are over 3.5 lakh Nishad votes in Gorakhpur, which this time will be divided, as SP’s candidate is already meeting people,” he said.

Recently, the Nishad community had hit the streets demanding reservation under the Scheduled Caste category. They were beaten up by the police allegedly on orders from the current administration.

Meawhile, SP seems confident of its candidate’s chances.

The party’s Gorakhpur district president, Prahlad Yadav, told Newsclick, "The current situation of Gorakhpur is that BJP is losing this seat for sure, that's why they are delaying declaration of the candidate’s name. Our party has given respect and recognition to every Nishad leader, from Phoolan Devi to Jamuna Nishad, his son Amrendra Nishad and Praveen Nishad, but they all betrayed us. If BJP announces anyone among them, upper caste votes will be polarised in the favour of Congress, which has not fielded any candidate from Gorakhpur.”

When asked if Yogi was likely to contest, Yadav said: "We are praying to God that he fights so his delusion this time is over. He did not do any good work in his five terms. We won the Gorakhpur seat last time, and we will repeat history again.”

Also Read: Election 2019: In UP, the Making and Breaking of Alliances Continues